Drama, threats, and drones

War in Ukraine, drones over Poland: NATO's security environment is tense, and the US is proving to be a difficult ally to assess. Lieutenant Colonel Michael Gutzeit discusses this situation and possible solutions with Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala.

In September, Poland was forced for the first time to shoot down Russian drones on its own territory, which had entered its airspace in large numbers. Defense Minister Pistorius described the incident as an “unprecedented violation of Polish airspace” and “a provocation against NATO as a whole.” He assured: “As allies, we stand together in solidarity (...) we will not be provoked.” How should the regular airspace violations be interpreted? Are they intended to provoke NATO, or is Russia primarily seeking to distract attention from its military weakness?

Words and centimeters

Ukraine is gaining ground north of Pokrovsk and attacking Russian oil refineries, while this year's Zapad maneuvers by Russia are significantly smaller in scale. President Zelensky suspects that Russia lacks the strength for a major offensive. Putin's drones could therefore signal less strength and more uncertainty. The front lines are also shifting politically. Moscow has recently declared Europe, rather than the US, to be its main enemy. At the same time, Washington's representatives are emphasizing their loyalty to the alliance: “We would defend every inch of NATO,” said US Ambassador Waltz at the United Nations. Even President Trump recently reaffirmed the defense of Poland and the Baltic states. Is this a new clarity, and how reliable is it?

Interviewees

Carlo Masala is a professor at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich and director of the Metis Institute for Strategy and Forecasting. Lieutenant Colonel Michael Gutzeit is head of information at the ZMSBw.

You can listen to the podcast episode on the ZMSBw website.